Worth opening?

Three inputs, and only one of them is not ours. The cards in each set, their rarities and what each finish sells for are our own price data, so a reverse holo slot pays the reverse price rather than that card's ordinary one. How many packs a product holds is read off the descriptions the shops themselves publish, which is why an Elite Trainer Box here is 9 packs, a Pokemon Center one is 11 and Crown Zenith's was 10, rather than a single number applied to all of them.

The odds are the input we cannot derive. The Pokemon Company publishes no pull rates for English product, so these are TCGplayer per-set pack openings, read on Aug 30, 2026 and covering 17 sets on this page. They are per set and not per era: a Special Illustration Rare turns up in 3.01% of Scarlet & Violet base packs and 1.15% of Surging Sparks packs. A set with no published rate is left off rather than given a borrowed one.

2,000,000 openings is past the point where more changes the answer. The same product run under different random seeds lands within a few cents at this count, while the odds themselves are measured to about a fifth of a percentage point, so the sampling stopped being the uncertainty a long way back.

About 30% of every average here is commons and uncommons at a few cents each. Those prices are real in the sense that the market quotes them and unreachable in the sense that nobody sells 144 commons one at a time, which is what the Sellable column takes out. In the other direction, only what comes out of the packs is counted: a promo card the product ships alongside them is not, so anything built around its promo reads low here. A checklane blister is one pack and a guaranteed promo, and the promo is the reason to buy it. A booster box ships no promo and is unaffected.

Everything here is Scarlet & Violet. Earlier sets file every V as a single rarity while the odds for them are published separately for normal, full art and alt art, and spreading one probability evenly across that mixture would hand an alt art the same chance as a normal V. That would not widen the answer, it would raise it, so those sets are left out. Prismatic Evolutions and White Flare are out for a different reason: a third of their packs turn on Poke Ball and Master Ball foil patterns, which we hold no separate price for.